October macro event attention SHAOXING LIDONG TRADING CO.,LTD , https://www.lidong-garment.com
Macro key tips
In October we focused on four events:
First, the regulatory authorities maintain a stable capital market. The party’s 19th National Congress will be held in October. On September 25th, the CSRC held a system-wide video conference to mobilize and redeploy the CSRC system to meet the work of the 19th Party Congress. It is proposed to make every effort to ensure the smooth operation of the capital market. We must look at the extreme importance of maintaining market stability from a political perspective, and take measures to maintain market stability from the perspective of politics and the overall situation. Strengthen the monitoring and analysis of international and domestic market operations, give full play to the role of the frontline supervision of the exchanges, actively and timely guide the work of public opinion in the capital market, and effectively strengthen the coordination of financial supervision and system work. For some of the problems that arise in the market operation, we must take effective measures to deal with them in a timely manner, and create a good capital market environment for the victory of the party's 19th National Congress. We believe that the capital market will operate more smoothly in October.
Second, the performance of macro data is not as bad as expected. From the high-frequency data, the consumption of coal by the six major groups is better than that of August. From the rhythm of fiscal policy this year, there is a clear phenomenon of end-of-season volume. We believe that the September data should be better than August, and the economic downturn is not fast. Environmental protection and production restrictions and real estate regulation have a negative impact on the economy, but infrastructure, exports, and manufacturing are positive. The overall economy is still down, but the resilience is strong.
Third, there are new catalysts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Xiong'an are different from other regional strategies and are the clearest top-down logic. Previously, Xu Jindi, chief designer of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, said that the plan was reported to the central government before the end of September. We believe that September-October should be the period of Xiong'an's policy, which may trigger the second wave of regional economic themes.
Fourth, environmental protection and production restrictions have slowed down. At present we believe that this probability is low. Through research on Shandong, Zhejiang, Gansu and other places, we believe that after the fourth batch of environmental inspection teams left the place, environmental protection will still be strictly enforced as a standard. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas of the 2+26 urban production-restriction program have now refined the tasks to cities and counties, and many areas have already prepared for work since March, and we believe that it will be strictly enforced. If environmental protection limits production and prices rise too fast, affecting the price order, it may lead to policy coordination leading to slowdown. At present, some of the factors affecting production are still cases. We believe that the probability of environmental protection and production slowdown is low.
October strategic perspective
Our overall judgment on the A-share market in October is still a volatile pattern, and the structural opportunities in the overall market are still concentrated in the area of ​​profit-determined recovery. During the holiday period, China's economic data has been superimposed and delayed, and the combination of growth improvement and low inflation has helped the profitable cattle to go further. Before the market almost reached a consensus on the economic recovery of the fourth quarter economy, or we will be destroyed, but we believe that compared with 2011-2015 demand determines the profitability of the enterprise, the current supply and demand pattern will determine the profitability of the leading A-share listed companies will continue to be repaired. The real threat in the future is more likely to be inflation than to fall into deflation again. China's manufacturing sector profitability in the mid-cycle repair, liquidity is not tight, A-shares show a structural trend of profitable cattle. After the supply-side reform is recognized by the market, manufacturing is the king cycle + finance is the main direction of market investment.
From a profit perspective, we believe that everyone is concerned about the three quarterly quotes in October, and from the third quarter, we can see that economic data has not been as good as market expectations, and earnings data has been showing good results. We believe that there is still a gap in the current overall supply and demand level, and the environmentally limited production started in the third quarter has an impact on the economic demand side, but it also makes the supply and demand gap further increase, and the profit of the manufacturing upstream industry expands further. We still maintain our previous judgment that capital expenditure expansion will remain at least until the end of this year, and the ROE expansion cycle will remain at least until the second quarter of next year. The third quarterly market is more concerned about the performance of the upstream industry in the financial and manufacturing sectors.
On the liquidity level, we believe that liquidity is not loose in October. From the perspective of delaying the orientation and lowering the standard, first of all, the central bank’s proposed directional reduction is a continuation of the policy of “de-funding and realism†proposed at the National Financial Work Conference in July, which will help small and medium-sized enterprises. Secondly, the delay will be adjusted. In the fourth quarter of this year, the financial security policy will be further strengthened to prevent the vacancy of funds and provide guarantee for the targeted RRR cuts next year. At the same time, the targeted RRR cut will be set in 2018, which also confirms the fourth quarter monetary policy tone for financial supervision + “de-intrusion†Therefore, the liquidity level in the fourth quarter of this year is still not tight, and the interest rate level fluctuates at a high level. The A-share market does not have the overall opportunity for liquidity trend improvement.
Therefore, we conclude that the delay-oriented downgrade reduces the uncertainty of the molecular end, and the A-share profit is in the lead. The current main battlefield is based on the profit-making repair in the manufacturing sector. The environmental protection and production-changing supply pattern has lengthened the price repair cycle. The current configuration value of Wang's cyclical stocks is optimal. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the “golden chemical†combination: rare metals (rare earth rare earth) and electrolytic aluminum (yun aluminum shares); chemical raw materials (Wanhua Chemical); construction machinery (Liugong); bank (China Merchants Bank); brokerage (Guangfa Securities).
Subject investment, Xiong'an pays attention to the “Government Brown Gold†combination (Digital Zhengtong/Calcary Shares/Golden Shares/Tongji Technology); the era of big mixed reform focuses on the “China Aviation North Ship†combination (COFCO Biochemical/Aerospace Chenguang/Beihua Shares/ CSIC); Xinneng car is recommended to pay attention to the "Xinya Fenghua" combination (innovation shares / BYD / Yan Feng Lithium / Huayou Cobalt).
Gold stock portfolio
Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) - Financial Shen Juan Team
Recommendation logic
1. The company launched a full-scale retail transformation in 2016. The strategy is full of strength, with financial technology as the starting point, with the Group's technology support and customer migration, the transformation prospect is broad.
2. In the first half of 2017, the retail business was obviously exerted. The balance of retail loans increased by 21.5% from the previous month. The three major products of credit card, new loan and automobile consumer loans all experienced rapid growth in the first half of the year. The retail asset end has maintained a high yield of 8%-9% for a long time, and the high-yield rate at the retail end effectively guarantees the company's high spread level.
3. The company attaches great importance to asset quality control. In the case of poor stocks, the company has taken the initiative to speed up the release in recent years, abandoning the past practice of covering up bad practices through loan restructuring, and actively writing off the collection. For the new bad, the company insisted on the new “zero tolerance†principle for the public, and the quality of retail assets improved significantly under the risk of big data evaluation.
Expected difference
The market generally has doubts about the effectiveness of the company's retail transformation. We believe that in the current wave of bank transformation, the technology is leading the retail transformation strategy, and the Group's strong support, the transition can be successful.
catalyst
Industry asset quality pressure relief, driving valuation regression
Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993.SH) - Nonferrous Li Bin Team
Recommendation logic
1. The average price of copper, cobalt, tungsten and molybdenum 17H1 rose by more than 22%, 114%, 20% and 30% respectively. According to the analysis of supply and demand and cost, the price of tungsten and molybdenum is expected to remain, and the price of copper and cobalt still has room to rise.
2. According to the price of copper and cobalt of 6,500 US dollars / ton, 30 US dollars / lb, the current price of tungsten and molybdenum is assumed to be 6.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the current PE 22 times.
3. Entering the Congo Golden Rainy Season and the new energy vehicle grabbing season, optimistic about the higher cobalt price in the fourth quarter
Expected difference
The release of profits exceeded expectations; operating efficiency improved more than expected.
catalyst
2017Q4 cobalt entered the peak demand season. At present, the supply of cobalt long coal mine has been tightened, and social stocks are expected to be at a reasonable lower level for 1-2 months. Recently, MB and domestic cobalt prices have continued to rise, and the cobalt sector has benefited in the short term.
Tongkun Shares (601233.SH) - Chemical Liu Wei Team
Recommendation logic
1. China's polyester filament leading enterprises currently have a production capacity of 4.4 million tons of polyester filament yarn. In 2016, the domestic market share exceeded 13%, and the global proportion exceeded 9%.
2. Renminbi depreciation is good for textile exports. With the approaching period of autumn and winter fabrics approaching, the bottom of the oil price is solid, the market wait-and-see mood gradually subsides. Although the short-term consolidation, the polyester filament market is steadily improving.
3. The company's PTA products are all used for polyester production. With the withdrawal of backward production capacity, the PTA industry supply and demand pattern has improved; the company participated in the construction of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 40 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project, and the profit prospect is expected to be good;
4. As the industry leader, the company's market share has increased year by year, and its profitability in the medium and long term is stable. It is estimated that the net profit this year will be nearly 1.5 billion, and the current market value is 19 billion.
Expected difference
High oil price rises, project profit prospects exceed expectations
catalyst
Product price increase, project production
Xingyu shares (601799.SH) - car Xie Zhicai team
Recommendation logic
1. The value of bicycles in the segment of the headlights of the company is constantly improving. The domestic replacement space is large, and the company has the potential to grow into a segmentation leader;
2. The company's product structure is upgraded, the proportion of headlights and rear combination lights is increased, the turning point of gross profit margin appears, and the profitability will continue to increase;
3, the company's largest customer FAW-Volkswagen will usher in the product year 2018, improve the company's performance flexibility.
Expected difference
2017 annual performance growth will exceed 30%
catalyst
Major customers accelerate the speed of new car launches
Shentong Express (002468.SZ) - delivery Shen Xiaofeng team
Recommendation logic
1. On the demand side, the competition of Tmall Jingdong E-commerce is intensifying, and the promotion intensity and time span are expected to exceed expectations, driving the demand for express delivery;
2. Cost side, road capacity supply, oil price, toll fee, processing efficiency improved year-on-year, scale effect appeared, and performance is expected to exceed expectations;
3, the low-cost strategy of the listing, to ease the industry price competition and Shentong market share pressure. Shentong had less institutional participation, the lowest valuation industry, and a margin of safety.
Expected difference
1. The industry peak season demand and industry cost fell more than expected;
2. The company's management and cost improvement exceeded expectations.
catalyst
Mid-Autumn Festival, double eleven e-commerce promotion war
Zhongmu shares (600195.SH) - Agricultural Xu Qifeng team
Recommendation logic
1, the bottom of the valuation, throwing Jindawei part of the 17 years only 23 times
2. State-owned enterprise reform
Expected difference
The quality of foot-and-mouth disease exceeds expectations
catalyst
State-owned enterprise reform
Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) - Food and Beverage He Qi Team
Recommendation logic
The growth in the first half of the year was mainly contributed by the three major markets of Huai'an, Nanjing and Yancheng. The market share of the three major markets may reach 60-70%. In the first half of the year, Nanjing is expected to grow by 40-50%, Yancheng by 30-40%, and Huai'an by about 10-20%. From the perspective of mid-autumn stocking, growth has accelerated compared with the first half of the year. The growth rate of various regional markets in July-August is close to the full-year forecast, and some markets are better than expected. There are more people returning to the hometown this year than in previous years, and sales in the peak season are expected to be good.
Expected difference
The company's revenue growth is expected to be poor.
catalyst
The company's key markets are selling well.
Fresh Environment (002573.SZ) - Environmental Protection Public Wang Jiajia Team
Recommendation logic
1. The demand for electricity is not pessimistic. Non-electricity is on the verge of a short-term: small and medium-sized units and self-sufficient power plants support the power demand in the 16-18 years to maintain 30 to 40 billion, and the total non-electricity demand is more than 150 billion.
2, fresh and based in North China, technology as the main pattern: North China's income accounted for about 50%, environmental protection, energy conservation, comprehensive utilization of resources, comprehensive layout, creating a "big pattern" of industrial environmental protection.
3. The current stock price corresponds to 2017-18 P/E 22/17x. The heating price will be estimated to 30x before the heating season. Next year's performance will look at the steel/industrial boiler order in the fourth quarter.
Expected difference
Non-electrical business expansion exceeds expectations
catalyst
Non-electrical bidding (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei non-electrical atmospheric treatment demand has taken the lead)
Tianci Materials (002709.SZ) - Electric New Huangbin Team
Recommendation logic
1. The suppression factor of “price†is gradually eliminated. Lithium hexafluorophosphate has recently fallen to around 150,000/ton, and the median production cost is about 110,000/ton. Therefore, the current price of hexafluoride and electrolyte is not much downward;
2. The growth of “quantity†is significant. Shipment tracking shows that after July, the shipments of midstream battery and materials increased significantly. The company's annual shipments ranged from 3.2 to 35,000 tons. Considering the shipments of more than 10,000 tons in the first half of the year, monthly shipments in the second half of the year. The volume is expected to double in the first half of the year;
3. In 2017, the self-sufficiency of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be realized. The production of LiFSI new lithium salt will further enhance the differentiation advantage. Then consider the company's layout in lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials to realize the reuse of production by-products and the upstream lithium resources. Prospective layout, the company's industry is gradually developing in depth, and the market share is expected to further increase.
Expected difference
After January and September, the installed capacity of the battery is expected to continue to exceed expectations, and electrolyte demand will exceed expectations;
2. The price of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate will stabilize.
catalyst
1. The Q4 new energy bus enters the centralized delivery period;
2. The data of new energy vehicle production and sales was released in September;
3. Double-point policy is implemented.
Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) - Computer Gaohongbo Team
Recommendation logic
1. High-performance computing leader, the main domestic supplier of servers and storage.
2. Benefit from smart cities and data China construction, and comprehensively promote urban cloud construction.
3. The shareholding subsidiary obtained the AMD server CPU license, and the products are expected to launch a beneficial and controllable market during the year.
Expected difference
Obtained authorization CPU technology mastery and performance exceeded expectations, self-controllable market promotion speed exceeded expectations, future CPU sales profit and gross profit increased more than expected
catalyst
The self-controllable CPU streaming film successfully started to sell, and the self-controllable market was fully launched.
Zhuo Yi Technology (002369.SZ) - Electronic Zhang Wei team
Recommendation logic
1. The company announced the draft equity incentives, demonstrating the high growth confidence of future performance.
2. The historical legacy has been digested and a new starting point for management has emerged.
3, the big customer strategy is right, the intelligent manufacturing ability is remarkable
Expected difference
1. The comprehensive business environment and product layout are better than expected
2. The performance reversed the progress better than expected
catalyst
1. The main business gradually ushered in the turning point opportunity
2. VR, AR and other products of the Internet of Things innovation platform
3, the big customer Xiaomi crisis reborn, the company's revenue is significant
Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH) - Communication Zhou Ming team
Recommendation logic
1. Under the operator's big connection strategy, the investment in enterprises and the Internet of Things connection will increase, and the fiber optic cable will be booming.
2. The volume and price of the fiber optic cable market increased, the company benefited from the market concentration and the performance continued to improve.
3. Vigorously promote emerging businesses such as marine engineering, new energy automotive products, and smart communities, and optimize the income structure.
Expected difference
Fiber optic cable demand exceeded expectations
catalyst
5G transmission network construction; China Mobile launched 2018 fiber optic cable collection
China National Building Materials (3323.HK) - Hong Kong stock raw materials Wang Shuai team
Recommendation logic
In January and September, cement prices were much stronger than in the same period of the previous year. East China and Central China have achieved two rounds of increase, and the third round of price increases before and after the National Day.
2. The current market has not yet reached the most intense supply time. The northern limit of production during the heating period will be very large. East China and Central China will be the biggest beneficiaries of the northern supply gap.
3. China National Building Materials has: 1) current low valuation, 2) profit with cement price increase elasticity, 3) East China Central China accounted for 63%. Expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the peak season cement market
Expected difference
The market may still have insufficient understanding of the potential increase in cement prices in the peak season this year. We believe that this year's increase will exceed 2013, approaching 2010 and challenging 2011.
catalyst
1. The cement market frequently raises prices during the peak season;
2. The northern limit production plan will be landed one by one;
3. Some southern provinces with large cement production may also produce at the lower limit of environmental protection pressure.
Guanghui Baoxin (1293.HK) - Hong Kong stock car Lin Zhixuan team
Recommendation logic
1. The luxury car business accounts for a large proportion, and in the next few years, it will benefit from the sales growth of luxury cars brought about by consumption upgrades.
2, BMW's new car sales business accounted for a large proportion, benefiting from BMW's strong product cycle in 2017-2019, the new 5 series successfully listed, sales climbed steadily
3. The non-fundamental factors (management adjustment, GMC clear inventory) that have put pressure on the stock price have been exhausted, and the stock price is expected to make up.
Expected difference
New car and after-sales business growth brought by BMW's new products is expected to significantly exceed market expectations
Sinotrans Shipping (0368.HK) - Delivery Shen Xiaofeng (A+H) Team
Recommendation logic
1. Benefiting from the peak season of dry bulk demand in the second half of the year, the BDI index continued to rise.
2. The company's performance in the first half of the year turned losses into profit, and the profit in the second half of the year is forecast to increase further.
Expected difference
The average BDI index for the fourth quarter is expected to be approximately 1250, an increase of 32% year-on-year.
catalyst
The fourth quarter is the seasonal peak season for dry bulk shipping. The demand and industry freight rates are further higher than the third quarter.
Shijiazhuang Group (1093.HK) - Pharmaceutical Daiwen (A+H) Team
Recommendation logic
1. Leading products Enbpu is expected to maintain sales growth of more than 40%, optimistic about the peak sales of the future of more than 6 billion Hong Kong dollars (if the expansion of the indications is considered, it is expected to reach 10 billion scale)
2, anti-tumor line 1H17 year-on-year growth rate of 74%, is expected to more than 60% sales growth throughout the year
3, the price of vitamin C increased, the performance rebounded strongly, 17 years is expected to contribute 200 million yuan in net profit
Expected difference
Tumor line exceeded expectations, overseas ANDA
catalyst
New medical insurance (Enb's injection + Jinyouli new), the price of short-term vitamin C is greatly increased, and the gross profit margin is improved.
Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - Hong Kong stock Internet He Saiyi team
Recommendation logic
1. The company has an absolute leading edge in social and gaming. China's social platforms and gaming platforms will become more concentrated and stronger.
2. In 2018, Tencent will develop more revenue areas, such as precision marketing revenue, cloud business and transaction services business.
3. Net profit growth is expected to exceed expectations.
Expected difference
Quarterly results are expected to continue to exceed expectations, in addition to income, net profit margin is expected to continue to rise beyond expectations.
catalyst
1. The new business will be reflected in the next two quarters (3Q and 4Q17) will drive the stock price;
2, games, advertising, social services business is strong. Quarterly results are expected to maintain high growth rate;
3. New business began to contribute revenue this year.