South China Morning Review: July 19th date early review

Black early review

1. Rebar: more than one holding

Today Tangshan billet holds steady at 3,470. Shanghai 20mm HRB400 3750 (0). The price of the night trading has fluctuated and strengthened.

After the cycle of the goods was upgraded, the spot price strengthened slightly, the terminal purchases declined slightly, and the social inventory and steel mill inventory continued to decline. Profits continue to rise, but supply still has bottlenecks in the short term. The demand for billet rolling supports the price of billet firmly. Although the demand is in the off-season, the thread inventory is at a low level, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Once the market demand rebounds, the decline in inventory will still support the steel price. Due to the sharp narrowing of the discounted price, there will be adjustment demand in the short term, but the spot market will continue to strengthen, the upward trend will not change, and the callback will be long. Steel mill profits will remain strong. The plates are held in multiples.

2. Iron ore: multiple single lightening holding

Yesterday Qingdao Port Pb powder 512 (+20). At night, the lightening of the position was sharply strengthened, which hit the pressure of 530.

Recently, steel mills have been motivated to purchase. Yesterday, the port spot price rose by 20, traders were quite pricey, and prices rose. The overall demand for steel is good, steel prices are rising, and profits are good. The blast furnace has limited space for start-up and the daily consumption has remained stable. The average inventory increased by 1 day to 26 days. On the supply side, shipments from Australia and Brazil last week have dropped significantly, and the recent upward pressure on port stocks has temporarily eased. There is still supply pressure in the medium term, but there are long-term support for small and medium mines. Along with the high starting price of steel mills, the profit is good. The short-term mine price is expected to be strong in the short-term, but the upside is limited, and more single-short positions are held, paying attention to the pressure of the 530 line. The positive space is not large, and it is cautiously held.

3. Coal char: the night plate rose slightly

In terms of coke, Japan Steel has raised its coke purchase price by 50 today, and the third wave of the mainstream market has risen. However, the steel enterprises have sufficient stocks, and the willingness to replenish the stocks is not strong, and the futures technology is facing high pressures. At present, the pursuit of high risks is high, and it is recommended to wait and see.

In terms of coking coal, coking enterprises have low inventory, coking steel enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing is not reduced, and coking coal rigid demand is strong, which is the main reason for the recent strong coking coal price. In terms of strategy, it is recommended that the futures wait and see.

White sugar early review

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by the rise of Brazilian Real. Zheng sugar fell slightly on the night of yesterday, and the overall trend remained low. In terms of spot, Liuzhou middlemen offer 6460-6480 yuan / ton, Nanning middlemen offer 6600 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, the daily line level, MACD red column expansion, fast and slow line low gold fork upward, KDJ dead fork down, the moving average is still short. On the 30-minute line, the MACD red column is zoomed out, and the slow and slow lines are again forming a dead fork, and the KDJ dead fork continues downward. Trading strategy: January contract is high and low, 9-1 is set, 9-5 is holding.

Oil and fat oil early review

Information: The US oil industry market trade report released by the US Department of Agriculture showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in 2017/18 are expected to be 17.2 million tons, down 100,000 tons from last month's forecast, due to slowing global demand. In contrast, Malaysia's palm oil exports in 2016/17 were 16.6 million tons, 16.621 million tons in 2015/16, and 17.378 million tons in 2014/15.

Operation: US beans edged higher on Tuesday, trailing corn futures, as the hot and dry weather in the United States could put pressure on crop growth. In the next two weeks, the weather in the United States will continue to be hot and dry, and it is expected that this week will continue to boost the 11-term contract price to stand on the threshold of 1,000 yuan. The soybean meal was slightly boosted by the US soybeans last night. It was technically slightly clamped by the 10-day line, and more than 2800 can continue to be cautiously held. The 2350 line of the vegetable 持续 continues to entangle, still located above the Bollinger channel, and more than one row can rely on the 2300 first-line stop loss. The domestic news of domestic soybeans is light, although the surplus of food is scarce, but there is not much support for the policy. The spot price has no market, and the 3900 is still dominated by holding empty orders.

Malaysian palm oil continued to fall on Tuesday, slipping to a two-week low as investors continued to worry that Malaysian palm oil production will increase in the coming months. Even palm oil has moved down the center of gravity in recent days, following the fall of horse palm oil, but domestic stocks continue to decline. It is recommended that the 20-day line be used for long-distance water separation. Soybean oil is sideways, and more than 6000 can continue to hold. The rapeseed oil is above the average line, and more than one can continue to hold.

Energy and Chemical Review

Strategy aspect:

1, LLDPE: Shenhua 7042 auction price 9020-9040, the futures slightly rising water spot. For the recent overhaul of PE, Yangzi Petrochemical Parking, Fushun Petrochemical's 940,000-ton installation and China Coal Mengda's 300,000-ton installation are expected to start on July 15. In terms of new installations, the 600,000-ton/year PP unit and the 450,000-ton/year PE unit of Shenhua Ningmei Phase II are expected to be put into operation on July 10, and the supply pressure will increase again in July. Recently, petrochemical inventories and intermediate link stocks have been digested faster. Most of the maintenance devices will be restarted in July. The resumption of production of the previous speculation device may come to an end. In July, polyolefins may have a “buy expected, sell reality” wave, but above LL Subject to import suppression, the overall space above is limited, more than one can consider temporary take profit, and later enter the market again.

2. PP: The main volume of powder in Shandong is 7600-7650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of drawing in North China market is 7850-8150 yuan/ton. In terms of overhaul, Yangzi Petrochemical's 400,000-ton plant, Fushun Petrochemical's 390,000-ton plant, and China Coal's 300,000-ton plant plan were restarted in July. In terms of new production capacity, Shenhua Ningmei's new 600,000 t/y PP plant will be put into trial production on July 3. The profit of MTO equipment in coastal areas has dropped. At present, several sets of equipments such as Ningbo Fude and Jiangsu Shenghong have basically recovered to 90% of load production. Shenhua Ning Coal has to focus on methanol recovery in July and August. Changzhou Fude 300,000 tons of PP plant resumption of production.

3. Rubber: Domestically, as of July 17, rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased by 4.4% from the previous period, a decrease of 11900 tons. According to the latest data, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone began to decline, and the inventory pressure was slightly reduced. Thailand will gradually introduce a rubber-intensive scheme. There are certain factors for the Hujiao fundamentals, but it is not certain that the final implementation will be implemented. The rubber fundamentals have not improved much, and more will fluctuate with black and macro fluctuations. Recently, the Shanghai rubber market has been repeated, and more in the later period.

Early review of non-ferrous metals

China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 6.9% year-on-year, much better than expected. In June, the industrial added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.6% year-on-year, better than expected, and the market's previous pessimistic expectations are still being revised. Recently, the Baltic Dry Freight Index rose for the sixth consecutive day. The US dollar index continued to hit a 10-month low overnight, and industrial products continued to rise.

copper

Affected by China's unexpected economic data and weak dollar, Lun Copper rose to the level of 6000 US dollars, and the Shanghai copper night plate was narrowly arranged to close at 47,800. The Zaldivar copper mine in Chile and the Antofagasta copper mine are facing the threat of a new strike. The supply of raw materials for the market is picking up again. As the import declines, the supply pressure on the market has weakened and the market may remain strong. After the recent rapid rise, the spot is slightly discounted, and it is recommended that the short-term more than one single take profit.

aluminum

The rebound of Lun Aluminum led the Shanghai aluminum night plate to rise slightly, closing at 14435. China's demand for capacity is gradually weakening, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production has increased sharply year-on-year. The weakening of terminal demand has led to high domestic social inventories, and Shanghai aluminum stocks have risen to a high of more than three years. Recently, the rapid rise in thermal coal prices has raised the cost of Shanghai aluminum. The short-term Shanghai aluminum center has risen slightly, but the gains are difficult to sustain. It is recommended to wait and see.

Zinc

The Shanghai zinc night plate was arranged in a narrow range of 23,000 lines. Inventories of zinc ingots in the two cities continued to decline, and domestic refined zinc production declined year-on-year, supporting the high price of zinc. However, the output of zinc mine has rebounded. The reduction of supply and demand gap has caused a slight increase in processing fees. In the second half of the year, fewer domestic enterprises will be seen for maintenance. Supply growth is predictable, and there is downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the short-term, the first-line pressure of 22600 in the previous period has become support, and it is recommended that the short-term multiple orders continue to be held.

nickel

At night, Shanghai Nickel touched the 80,000 mark and then fell back slightly to close at 79,740. The price of upstream mines remained stable, but the inventory level rebounded. The list of Indonesian nickel ore export enterprises increased by 2, but the main production areas of Philippine nickel mines will enter the rainy season in the second half of the year. The supply risk of nickel mines remains. The downstream stainless steel stocks returned to a low level, but stainless steel production declined. Technically, the nickel price average line is long, but the pressure in the early stage is around 80000. It is recommended that the short-term ones have more than one profit.

The above comments were provided by Xue Na, Sun Minglei, Li Xiaodong, Xu Minjing, Bian Shuyang, Xu Yuyin, He Lin, Liu Bingxin.

(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)