Development trend of China's aluminum industry in 2019

The shortage of overseas alumina has directly changed the import and export pattern of alumina in China. In 2017 and before, China was a net importer of alumina for many years. In 2017, the import volume was 2.86 million tons and the export volume was only 55,700 tons. Since Hydro announced that 50% of its production capacity has been discontinued, China's alumina exports have increased significantly, reaching 539,100 tons in the first nine months, and the monthly export volume in September reached 165,800 tons. On the other hand, the import volume has dropped significantly, with only 412,100 tons in September 18 and 34,600 tons in September. China has transformed into a net exporter of alumina.

On the other hand, the shortage of overseas alumina will also cause shortages in the industrial chain, triggering import demand for mid-end products. And China's own demand growth rate is not as expected, it will also increase the export demand and willingness of middle and lower reaches. In October 2018, the volume and amount of unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports increased by 19.1% and 26.9%, respectively, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The export value of the entire aluminum and aluminum products in the first nine months of the year reached US$20.065 billion, an increase of 21.2% year-on-year. According to this calculation, the export volume increased by about 15%. Exports are expected to remain high while there is still uncertainty in overseas alumina supply and demand is expected to recover.

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